UFC 270 Betting Preview
The second UFC weekend of 2022 and the first (two) title fights - and both promise to be absolute classics!
Francis Ngannou v Ciryl Gane
The UFC are billing this one as a ‘unifying’ the heavyweight division, however, Francis and other UFC fans believe the interim belt that was won by Gane shouldn’t exist, which would simply make this a title defence for Francis. Either way, it’s going to be one hell of a fight...
Firstly, there’s the back story, both Ngannou and Gane have trained under the same coach and in the same gym. They have sparred on multiple occasions. Then, Ngannou left the gym to move to the US. This of course means that Gane’s current coach (Fernand Lopez) knows Ngannou’s game inside out and knows exactly how to prepare for him.
Next, there’s the stylistic match-up. Francis is typically a knockout artist, known for devastating power - he just seems to be able to touch his opponents and knock them out. Francis isn’t known for his wrestling, however, the more time he spends in the UFC the more he improves in other areas.
Gane has a kickboxing background and is super light on his feet, he moves like a middleweight and really stands out for this compared to other heavyweights.
So, what are the bookies saying? Currently, Gane is favourite - Unibet have odds of 1.62 for Gane, with 2.38 for Ngannou. The bookmakers also imply that it’s a fight that will unlikely go the full five rounds - the odds of the fight going the distance are 3.25, whereas the odds of it finishing early are 1.3.
The current odds of Ngannou to win (2.38) are only just short of the odds for Ngannou to win by knockout (2.4) - much better value to bet just for the win.
However, the bet that we fancy here is Gane to win by KO at 3.6.
Brandon Moreno v Deiveson Figueiredo
Moreno v Figueiredo is a trilogy fight - the first fight ended in a draw, the second ended with Moreno submitting Figueiredo to capture the belt. Now, it’s the final fight for the Flyweight belt.
Figueiredo cited distractions in the run up to their second fight as the reason he lost - as such, he’s completely changed his camp. Instead of training in his usual Brazil, he relocated to Arizona to train with Henry Cejudo. What’s particularly interesting about this is that Henry Cejudo used to use Moreno as a training partner - meaning he’s going to be very knowledgable on how to train to beat him.
In the bookmakers Moreno is the favourite - currently coming in at 1.57 at Betway to win. Whereas Figueiredo is only at 2.45. When we look at the odds for their previous fight it was the other way around: 1.40 Figueiredo, 3.00 Moreno.
Apart from the psychological factor of Figueiredo knowing that Moreno has beat him and also the potential added pressure, we still think that the technical ability of Figueiredo gives him an edge. Plus, his desire to win mixed with training with Cejudo.
For this reason, we’re going with Figueiredo to win for 2.45
*Odds correct at time of publishing. Always check with the operator for the latest odds.
