Costa v Vettori - Fight Night Betting Preview
Although not a particularly stacked card this weekend, the main event promises to be an interesting one. Costa, the #2 ranked Middleweight contender, is taking on Vettori, the #5 ranked contender.
So, let’s take a quick look at some stand out points for each fighter and then break down which markets we’ll be betting on:
Paulo Costa
Paulo Costa rocketed through the UFC rankings - in only 5 fights in the UFC he found his way to the #2 contender spot and a title shot against Israel Adesanya. However, despite all the hype and build-up, Costa didn’t perform well against Adesanya - it’s fair to say Adesanya comprehensively picked Costa apart and then finished him by TKO in round 2.
The majority of Costa’s fights in MMA have finished early - Costa has only reached round 3 in one of his 14 professional MMA fights (against Romero) and tends to look tired by the start of the second round - see his Adesanya and Romero fights. And this is typical of his fighting style - he comes out with high intensity and ferocity looking for the early KO.
It is also worth noting that Costa is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu - his UFC fights are characterised by his striking and head kicks, however, he is a talented wrestler too.
Marvin Vettori
Vettori holds a record of 17-5-1 professional MMA fights, with 7-3-1 coming from the UFC - so, not an outstanding UFC record. However, Vettori has fought some decent opponents, including the current champion Adesanya twice.
Interestingly, the majority of Vettori's fights go the distance - only two out of his eleven UFC bouts have finished before the end of the fight.
Ask The Champ
For a detailed breakdown (and a bit of a roast…) from the guy who has fought both Vettori and Costa recently check out the video from Israel Adesanya:
What Bets Are We Taking?
At the time of writing, Vettori is the favourite to win - currently at 1.62, whereas Costa is 2.25. Not great value to be had simply by taking a win bet. Some method of victory bets we like the look of are:
| Paulo Costa by KO/TKO | 3.3 |
| Marvin Vettori by Points | 3 |
| Marvin Vettori by Submission | 6.5 |
And some round betting we like:
| Paulo Costa to Win in Round 1 | 6.5 |
| Marvin Vettori to Win in Round 3 | 12 |
| Marvin Vettori to Win in Round 4 | 15 |
On paper it seems simple - all Vettori has to do is avoid taking damage in round one and then slowly wear down Costa and take him into the later rounds. For this reason, we’re going to go for Vettori to win by Submission in Round 3 - 5.
Good luck everyone - let us know in the comments how you get on.
